Intermodel spread of East Asian summer monsoon simulations in CMIP5
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we diagnose the intermodel spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulations in the context of the moist static energy and moisture budgets. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity, defined as the deviation from the long-term zonal mean. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with recent observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.
منابع مشابه
Mechanisms of Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing in CMIP5 Models*
Changes of the Asian summer monsoon in response to anthropogenic forcing are examined using observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel, multirealization ensemble. In the twentieth century, CMIP5 models indicate a predominantly drying Asian monsoon, while in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario...
متن کاملResponses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models
In this study, we examined the responses of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to natural (solar variability and volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) forcings simulated in the 17 latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 models with 105 realizations. The observed weakening trend of low-level EASM circulation during 1958–2001 is partly reproduced under a...
متن کاملEarly Summer Response of the East Asian Summer Monsoon to Atmospheric CO2 Forcing and Subsequent Sea Surface Warming
The early summer regional climate change of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is investigated in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. In the greenhouse gas–forced scenario, reduction of radiative cooling and increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the ear...
متن کاملThe effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon
The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon) is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM). Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and black carbon (BC) emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are ...
متن کامل